Japan falls to 4th place in GDP after being overtaken by Germany. Consider the iridescent numbers and figures.
【Japan falls to 4th place in GDP forecast, Germany reverses course in FY2023, and the weak yen resonates.】
・The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that Japan’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 will drop from third to fourth place in the world in dollar terms, and will be overtaken by Germany.
・In addition to the decrease in dollar value due to the weak yen, the nominal GDP, which is affected by price fluctuations, is believed to reflect the higher rate of price increases in Germany than in Japan.
These are quotes from the article
Numbers (numerical values) that change the way you see if the standard changes
As I mentioned briefly in a previous blog, it appears that Japan’s GDP has finally been overtaken by Germany, dropping from third to fourth place.
Although Japan has been in the doldrums for a long time, we used to be able to say “Japan is the world’s third largest economy,” but we will no longer be able to say that.
Well, to begin with,
In terms of GDP per capita, Japan is not only in third place, but in 32nd place. (Germany ranks 20th).
Reference Site：【World GDP per capita per capita per country rankings and trends (IMF)】
Germany’s population is about 2/3 that of Japan. Germany has overtaken Japan in terms of total GDP as well as per capita, so it is a complete defeat.
Considering that Japan’s population will further age and decrease in the future, it is absolutely essential to increase labor productivity. (Even from my layman’s point of view, it is clear that there is a lot of waste in Japan today, both in the organizational structure and in the work of individuals.)
Thus, whether it is total GDP or GDP per capita changes the way it looks,
The way it looks also changes depending on whether it is converted into dollars or yen.
This is Japan’s GDP in yen terms. (2008-2022)
Here is Japan’s GDP in dollar terms (2010-2020)
This also changes the way you see it.
In 2012, the DPJ administration changed to the LDP administration.
In yen terms, the LDP administration seems to have worked hard and gradually increased GDP since 2012,
In dollar terms, however, it appears that GDP has been slowly declining since 2012.
This is, of course, due to the rapid depreciation of the yen that began around 2012, but the way it looks and the impression it gives changes considerably when converted into dollars and yen.
My point is,
The way we look at numbers (figures) changes just by changing the criteria.
You could say that the person making the claim can choose (and utilize) the graph according to what he/she wants to claim.
There is a saying, “Numbers don’t lie, but liars use numbers.”
I would not go so far as to call them liars,
That numbers and figures are an easy tool to use for those who claim to be so iridescent.
We should keep this in mind often.
Japan will fall to fourth place, but we should not be discouraged by just one criterion or number, total GDP, but rather look at Japan from various angles (criteria and numbers).
See you then.
To begin with, there is also the question of whether we can continue to use the GDP indicator, which was invented in 1934 before the war, indefinitely. It is also really important what kind of standards we use to look at and analyze things.